Musing #35: An investor's dilemma

Time is an ethereal dimension. Here on earth, it is imperceptible and yet so vital. None so heed it as the sanguine investor. This is not to say that we shouldn't be optimistic about the current state of markets, which is at an all-time high. However, it comes with its own set of dilemmas that we need to address.

On one side, there are those who can't wait to exit for this is as much faith as they have in the markets. They may be right in assuming so, considering the fact that the market always seems due for a correction when there is a spurt and things seem too good to be true. Doing so however, is dependent on when you entered the market and what your needs are. Too often, the only reason for exiting is that you are finally in to the black.

On the other hand, I have friends who can't bear to see the single digit returns from their fixed deposits and in their desperation, have broken the same to invest in to the market at any costs. For them, is it unreasonable to expect the market to hit 50,000 after the next general elections? I think not. But, does it make sense to do so when you have an imminent expense hanging over your head within the next year? Is it rational to expect your money to grow by double digits before the year is over? The answer to both is no but few would feel the need to justify these decisions.

It is inevitable that for most, judgements are based on the past. History is a great teacher but you need to know which lessons to learn and which to ignore. The financial crisis of 2007/08 was a humbling lesson for many and is bound to repeat itself, for greed will manifest itself in another form. Most of the lessons learnt are also steeped in the past and wouldn't catch up to the future in the way ingenuity would. Hence, the only insurance is to be able to ride through the bumps.

The best investment strategy then is to have a strategy. Setting up a target, time horizon and understanding the means to get there is all that it takes, all of which requires immense discipline. Hence, the oft repeated suggestion of starting out with a SIP at the earliest is still the best one. It relieves you of the most important decision that one has to make - timing the market. Time, the most agnostic of all entities. Yet, it is with time that your accumulated fortune compounds and helps you attain the target that seemed too farfetched in the past.

However, investment discipline also involves setting up the right mix of products along with the horizon. Contingencies need to be provided for which the pithy savings account comes to the fore. Short term fixed deposits provide the stability needed to meet near term life goals that cannot be gambled with. Then, there is the safe discretionary investment, the good EMI that you need to forget altogether when putting in to a long-term SIP along with regular bumps that become possible as you move along in life. Lastly, if you are up to it or really have a person dedicated to it, comes the direct investment in the stock market. One must understand that all expert opinions are lagging indicators and hence not the guidance you should take up when doing in alone. Instead, leave it to the experts.

As is the case with life, simplicity and planning is the gateway to successful investment.

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